银行贷款对房地产上市公司价值的实证研究

  本文关键词：银行贷款对房地产上市公司价值的实证研究，，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

        最早关于资本结构理论的研究始于大卫·杜兰特,他的理论分别是净收益理论、净营业收益理论和传统折衷理论。净收益理论认为增加负债可以降低企业的资本成本,从而提高公司价值；净营业收益理论认为债务的增加会因为抵税效应而降低加权资本成本,但是也会增加权益成本,二者相抵消得出了债务与资本结构无关的结论；传统折衷理论是二者的结合,认为存在一个最优的资本结构,当负债带来的抵税收益和增加的权益成本相抵消时,企业价值达到了最大。大卫的研究为后来资本结构理论的发展奠定了基础；MM理论首次将资本结构与企业价值联系起来,让人们认识到可以通过选择一个合适的资本结构来提高企业价值。但是MM理论有着较为严格的假设条件,因此没有很强的适用性。MM理论的研究使资本结构理论真正的成为一种科学理论,后人的研究都是将MM理论的假设条件放宽,拓展出新的领域；信息不对称理论以及委托代理理论的发展为资本结构理论的研究开辟了新的研究方向,这一时期的理论成为新资本结构理论。其中具有代表性的是代理成本理论、权衡理论以及优序融资理论。公司价值是企业利用有限资源在一定时期内资产运营、财务效益、资本保值增值等的经营效果,与企业绩效不同,更关注企业相关主体的利益。衡量方法有账面法、市场法、收益法和期权法。其中广泛使用的是市场法和收益法。市场法多用托宾Q来衡量公司价值,托宾Q考虑到企业当前和未来的价值,准确度更高,但是基于我国目前资本市场不完善,股市长期弱势的现状,研究效果不佳。收益法多使用EVA(经济增加值)衡量公司价值,该方法不仅考察了权益资本成本对公司价值的影响,同时还将股东财富与企业决策相联系,更能反映企业真实的价值,但是因为计算方法的复杂以及应用范围有限,在我国没有被广泛使用,我国的研究学者多用托宾Q来表示公司价值。目前我国学者对资本结构理论的研究很少,多数是对资本结构理论的应用,或者研究资本结构的影响因素,或者将资本结构细分为股权和债权,研究二者与公司价值的关系。自从我国开始实行住房体制改革后,房地产业蒸蒸日上。房地产业是一个关系到国计民生的行业,与建筑业、钢铁、建材等行业关联度高,具有资金密集型、资金回收期长、资产负债率高的行业特征,由于我国的企业债券市场不发达,房地产企业上市融资的门槛高,导致我国房地产业严重依赖银行信贷资金,一旦企业资金断裂将会给银行带来严重的流动性风险。为了抑制房地产业带来的负效应,金融危机以来国家开始实行一系列严格的政策来调控房地产业,倒闭的中小房地产企业数目开始上升,大规模的房地产上市公司开始寻求银行信贷资金以外的融资方式来谋求自身的发展。基于房地产业的重要性,本文研究了银行贷款对房地产上市公司价值的影响,通过揭示房地产上市公司的贷款规模及结构现状,为优化房地产企业资本结构进而提高公司价值提出了建议。本文以2006年底在沪深A股上市的65家房地产上市公司为研究对象,收集了2006-2010年五年的数据,得到了325个观测值。延续前人的做法,以托宾Q和市净率作为被解释变量衡量公司价值,以银行贷款规模和期限结构作为解释变量,同时选取公司规模、成长性、盈利能力、股权集中度作为控制变量,建立多元线性回归模型,分析了银行贷款规模和结构对房地产上市公司价值的影响。为了清晰的阐述问题,本文从国际和国内两个维度总结了前人的研究成果。目前西方的资本结构理论已经日臻成熟,所以理论介绍以西方为主,国内研究的侧重点是对西方资本结构理论的应用。本文重点研究银行贷款对公司价值的影响,所以在总结前人的研究成果后,从代理理论、信息不对称理论和权衡理论三个方面详细分析了债务代理成本如何影响公司价值；接着详细介绍了房地产业的现状,房地产业发展时间比较短,但是因为其关联度高,特别是和银行关系的紧密,使政府对房地产业一直有比较频繁的调控。房地产业整体资产负债率高、融资渠道单一,对银行信贷资金的依赖使较多的风险都集中在银行。经过理论的分析和对实际的把握,第四章是银行贷款对房地产上市公司价值影响的实证分析,发现银行贷款规模与企业价值成负相关关系,并且通过了99%的置信水平检验,这是因为银行贷款作为房地产企业的主要融资方式,一定范围内可以增加公司的价值,但是超过一定的范围会增加企业的偿债风险,增加破产的概率,从而降低公司价值；不论是以托宾Q还是以市净率作为被解释变量,短期贷款与公司价值都是负相关关系,长期贷款与公司价值正相关,并且二者在较高的显著性水平上通过了检验,这与假设不符。根据西方资本结构理论的解释,缩短债务可以减少委托代理成本,减少企业的过度投资和投资不足的问题,从而提高公司价值。但是我国房地产上市公司长期依靠短期债务,而房地产企业资金主要用于购买固定资产等长期资产,资产和负债的长期不匹配,使房地产企业隐藏着巨大的财务风险,短期债务规模过于庞大,减少代理成本作用被破产成本相抵消,从而降低了公司价值；企业规模与被解释变量是显著的负相关关系,与假设不相符,尽管规模增加可以通过多样化的经营来降低经营风险,但是庞大的资产规模也会给企业带来较大的管理成本,从而影响公司的利润,降低公司价值；股权集中度与被解释变量是显著的负相关关系,与假设相符,因为房地产上市公司股权集中在国有股手中,多级代理关系的存在减弱了国有股的监督作用,形成了“内部人控制”,从而影响公司的治理效应,降低公司价值；企业盈利能力与成长性对企业价值的影响不显著,这与假设不符合,可能更多的投资者对房地产上市公司做短线操作,没有关注企业的长期发展能力。针对房地产企业贷款规模及结构不合理的现状,提出以下几点建议：一、减少银行贷款的规模,提高直接融资的比重,可以从加快债券市场的发展和放宽股权融资的条件来解决；二、积极发展房地产信托投资产品,着力推广房地产信托投资基金；三、改变银行贷款的期限结构,提高长期贷款的比重；四、发挥企业的规模效应；五、强化债权的监督机制作用,加强债权的约束力不仅能够促使房地产上市公司的管理者妥善运用债务资本,同时可以改善公司治理模式；六、培育房地产金融二级市场,积极推动住房抵押贷款的证券化。目的是提高银行房贷的流动性,降低银行的系统性风险；七、优化房地产上市公司的股权结构；八、完善相关的法律法规；九、利率市场化；总之,在信贷紧缩的大环境下,我国房地产企业融资迫切需要改变融资渠道单一的局面,建立多层次的房地产融资体系,同时要培育房地产金融二级市场,分散银行的信贷风险,强化债权的监督约束机制,有效的保护债权人的利益,改变股权集中度高的局面,这一切都需要国家法律法规的保障才能切实有效的进行。国内外大部分研究是围绕债务融资的期限结构来研究与公司价值或者企业绩效的关系,将债务融资按照不同的标准细分,然后建立与公司价值的回归模型,很少单独研究银行贷款这一融资方式与房地产企业价值的关系。本文的创新点在于将银行贷款分为短期和长期两种形式,分别研究它们与企业价值的关系。不足之处在于没有将影响房地产企业的宏观经济因素考虑在内,未来的研究可以将GDP、利率等反映宏观经济的变量引入到模型中,增加模型的说服力,同时本文只研究了银行贷款对房地产上市公司价值的影响,未来房地产融资产品多样化后,可以按资金的来源细分,研究不同渠道的资金对房地产企业价值的影响；最后,本文只对房地产上市公司的数据进行了研究,未来的研究可以扩展到非上市公司,来增加实证结果的适用性。

    The earliest capital structure theory began in David Durand, his theory is the net income theory, the net operating income of theory and eclectic theory. Net income theory is that the increase in liabilities can reduce the cost of capital, thereby enhancing the value of the company; net operating income theory suggests that the increase in debt can reduce the weighted cost of capital, but also increases the cost of equity, finally, debt has nothing to do with capital structure; traditional compromise theory is a combination of both, the existence of an optimal capital structure, when the tax credit income brought about by debt offsets the increased cost of equity, the value of the enterprise is maximum. David’s research laid the foundation for the later development of the theory of capital structure. MM theory connects the capital structure with corporate values, People are aware that selecting an appropriate capital structure can enhance enterprise value. MM theory has a more stringent assumption, there is no strong applicability. MM theory made capital structure theory become a real scientific theory, the descendants of the study relax the assumption and expand to new areas. The development of the theory of asymmetric information and principal-agent has opened a new research fields, the theory of this period became the new capital structure theory. The representative theory is agency theory, the trade-off theory and pecking order theory.Since China began the implementation of housing reform, real estate industry has made tremendous development. Real estate has strong correlation degree with a lot of industry, for example, construction, iron and steel, building materials.The industry has characteristics of capital-intensive, the high asset liability rate. Due to China’s corporate bond markets are underdeveloped and high threshold of public financing of real estate enterprises, resulting in China’s real estate industry is heavily dependent on bank credit funds, enterprise funds’fracture will be a serious liquidity risk to the bank. Faced with the financial crisis, countries have begun to implement a strict policy to regulate the real estate industry, the number of closure of small and medium-sized real estate companies began to rise,large-scale real estate listed companies began to seek other funds from different direction to seek their own development. Based on the importance of real estate, paper focus on how bank loans affect the value of listed real estate companies, by revealing the status of the size of bank loan and structure of listed real estate companies, made recommendations for optimizing the capital structure of real estate enterprises, thereby increasing the value of the company.Author selected65listed real estate companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares at the end of2006and collected data for the2006to2010, up to325observations. Continuation of previous practice, the dependent variable is for measuring the value of the company, use Tobin’s Q and book value, the size of bank loan and term structure as independent variables, and selected the size of the company, growth, profitability and ownership concentration as the control variable. The establishment of a multiple linear regression model is to analyze the impact on the value of real estate listed companies.Size of loans for real estate companies and the status of the structure is irrational, the following is my propose:First, reducing the size of bank loans to raise the proportion of direct financing, at the same time, accelerating the development of bond markets and to relaxing the restrictions of equity financing;Second, actively developing the real estate investment trust products, mainly promoting real estate investment trusts; Third, changing the term structure of bank loans, increasing the proportion of long-term loans; Fourth, the scale effect should be considered; Fifth, strengthening the role of creditor oversight mechanisms, strengthening the binding of the claims, not only to promote the managers of listed real estate companies to make use of debt capital, but improving corporate governance; Fifth, nurturing the secondary market for real estate finance, and actively promoting the securitization of home mortgages. The purpose is to improve the liquidity of the mortgage banks, reduce the systemic risk of the bank; Sixth, optimizing the equity structure of listed real estate companies; Seventh, improving relevant laws and regulations; Eighth, the interest rate market. In short, the credit crunch environment, China’s real estate corporate finance has an urgent need to build the multi-level financing channel, nurturing the secondary market of real estate finance to low the banks’credit risk, and strengthening supervision and restraint mechanisms of the claims, in order to protect the interests of creditors effectively, changing the situation of high ownership concentration, the protection of all state laws and regulations can be effective.Most of the studies at home and abroad focus on the relationship between term structure of debt financing and the value of the company or enterprise performance, and then create a regression model.Rarely separately researching the bank loan and the value of real estate enterprises. The innovation of this paper is divided into short-term bank loans and long-term in two forms, respectively, to study their relationship with the enterprise value.The downside is that macroeconomic factors were not included. In future, such as GDP and interest rates which reflects the macroeconomic variables can be introduced into the model, increasing the persuasiveness of the model; when real estate financing product is diversified, research can focus on how funds of the different channels affect the value of the real estate business; Finally, this article only considered listed real estate company’s data, future research can be extended to non-listed companies to increase the applicability of the empirical results.

        银行贷款对房地产上市公司价值的实证研究

摘要4-8ABSTRACT8-101. 绪论13-17    1.1 研究背景及意义13-14    1.2 研究目标14    1.3 研究方法14    1.4 研究框架14-15    1.5 创新点15    1.6 概念的界定15-172. 国内外文献综述与理论分析17-32    2.1 国外相关研究17-23        2.1.1 国外资本结构理论17-22        2.1.2 国外资本结构与企业价值的实证研究22-23    2.2 国内关于资本结构与企业价值的实证研究23-25    2.3 债务融资与企业价值的研究25-29        2.3.1 国外相关研究25-28        2.3.2 国内相关研究28-29    2.4 关于房地产行业资本结构和企业价值的研究29-323. 房地产业的发展现状32-43    3.1 房地产行业的特征32-33        3.1.1 资金密集、周期性强32        3.1.2 宏观经济因素影响较大32-33    3.2 房地产业的发展历程33-34    3.3 房地产上市公司的融资方式34-38    3.4 房地产业的资本结构特征38-43        3.4.1 资产负债率高38-39        3.4.2 融资渠道单一39-41        3.4.3 短期贷款占比较高41-434. 实证研究43-55    4.1 样本选取和数据来源43-45        4.1.1 样本选取43-44        4.1.2 数据来源44-45    4.2 变量定义和研究假设45-47        4.2.1 变量定义45-46        4.2.2 研究假设46-47    4.3 模型的建立47-48    4.4 实证分析48-55        4.4.1 描述性统计48-51        4.4.2 相关性分析51        4.4.3 回归分析51-555. 结论及建议55-63    5.1 结论55-56    5.2 提高房地产上市公司价值的建议56-61        5.2.1 减少银行贷款的规模,提高直接融资的比重56-57        5.2.2 积极发展房地产信托投资产品57-58        5.2.3 改变银行贷款的期限结构,提高长期贷款的比重58        5.2.4 发挥企业的规模效应58-59        5.2.5 强化债权的监督机制作用59        5.2.6 培育房地产金融二级市场,积极推动住房抵押贷款的证券化59        5.2.7 优化房地产上市公司的股权结构59-60        5.2.8 完善相关的法律法规60        5.2.9 利率市场化60-61    5.3 研究局限及展望61-63        5.3.1 研究的局限61-62        5.3.2 进一步研究的方向62-63参考文献63-69后记69-70致谢70

  本文关键词：银行贷款对房地产上市公司价值的实证研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。