国际贸易 投入产出分析 隐含碳排放 结构分解分析法(SDA)

  本文关键词：中国国际贸易隐含碳SDA分析，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

中国国际贸易隐含碳SDA分析

Structure Decomposition Analysis of Embodied Carbon Emissions for China＇s International Trade

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WANG Lili, WANG Yuan, MAO Guozhu, ZHAO Peng （School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China）

天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072

文章摘要：本文基于简化的非竞争型可比性价值投入产出表，应用投入产出分析法测算了2002年-2007年中国贸易隐含碳排放情况，发现中国的进出口和净出口隐含碳呈上升状态。其中，2007年净出1：2隐含碳（1928．93Mt）是2002年（615．12Mt）的3倍多。出口隐含碳的增加是导致中国净出口隐含碳增加的主要原因。为了进一步分析中国出口隐含碳增加的原因，本文应用结构分解分析法（SDA）将我国的出口碳排放分解为碳排放强度、中间投入结构、出口结构、出口总量四个方面。结果显示：2002年～2007年除了CO2碳排放强度效应为负值外（-20．00％），其余三种因素的效应均为正值，，出口总量是导致隐含碳排放量增加的最大驱动因素（106．58％），其次是中间投入结构（10．80％），出口结构的影响很小（2．62％）。对第二产业的SDA分析结果显示：中国出口隐含碳大部分来自于重工业，其次是高科技工业、轻工业和其他制造业。对轻工业和其他制造业而言，出口结构对隐含碳排放量有抑制作用；对高科技工业而言，中间产品的投入结构对隐含碳排放量有抑制作用。

Abstr：Understanding the situation of embodied carbon emissions in Chinese international trade is important for international negotiation and obtaining more development rights in the future. Based on a non-competitive input-output table （2002-2007） with 42 sectors and energy consumption data, we calculated carbon emissions embodied in China＇s international trade between 2002 and 2007. Results show that CO2 emissions from import trade, export trade and net export trade increased from 2002 to 2007. Carbon emissions embodied in net export trade （1928.93 Mt） in 2007 were three times as large as carbon emissions embodied in net export trade （615.12 Mt） in 2002. Using structural decomposition analysis （SDA） to analyze increasing carbon emissions embodied in export trade, carbon emissions were decomposed into four effects： CO2 emissions intensity, structure of intermediate inputs, structure of exports and total volume of exports. Decomposition results show that, using 2002 as the base year, the effect of CO2 emissions intensity was negative, whereas the effect of the other three factors was positive. Among these four factors, the total volume of exports was found to be the largest contributor to carbon emissions, followed by the structure of intermediate inputs; the effect of structure of exports was very small. Most CO2 emissions embodied in export trade originated from secondary industries and our SDA showed that the embodied carbon emissions of exports mainly came from heavy industries, followed by high industries, light industries and other industries. In all periods, the largest factor driving the increase in embodied CO~ emissions in basic industry, light industry, energy industry and other industry was total export vol

文章关键词：

Keyword：:International trade Input-output analysis Embodied carbon emissions SDA

课题项目：教育部人文社会科学基金：“中国贸易隐含碳转移变化与国际产业分工”（编号：1IYJCZH177）;国家自然科学基金：“基于全球生产网络的中国对外贸易中CO2转移排放研究”（编号：41201591）;国家社科项目：“全碳效率测度与区域生态经济评价研究”（编号：12BJY025）.

  本文关键词：中国国际贸易隐含碳SDA分析，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。