分析师盈利预测偏差模式及其解释
发布时间：2024-01-31 02:30
以往的研究表明,证券分析师盈利预测总体上存在乐观倾向。本文选取2005 - 2009年国内分析师对深市主板和中小板上市公司发布的盈利预测作为研究样本,研究了公司特征的不同是否会对分析师盈利预测乐观程度产生影响。我们按照公司信息披露质量和融资需求两个维度对公司进行分类,并发现:与信息披露质量高的公司相比,分析师倾向于对信息披露质量较低的公司发布更加乐观的盈利预测。对有较高融资需求的公司,分析师会发布更加乐观的盈利预测。这两种因素促成了系统性预测偏差模式的形成,而这一模式会随着预测期间的缩短而发生微小的变化。我们研究了明星分析师和普通分析师的盈利预测行为的差别,发现两类分析师所覆盖的公司类型的相对比例有微小差异。公司特征决定明星分析师发布的盈利预测比普通分析师更为准确还是更为乐观。与普通分析师相比,明星分析师对信息披露质量较高或融资需求较低的公司发布更加准确的盈利预测,而对信息披露质量较低或融资需求较高的公司发布相同乐观程度的预测。我们的研究结果认为利益冲突对证券分析师的盈利预测行为有影响,而盈利预测偏差模式的形成是分析师维护与机构投资者关系、维护与上市公司管理层关系以及维护分析师所在券商...
【文章页数】：60 页
【学位级别】：硕士
【文章目录】：
Abstract
摘要
1 Introduction
1.1 Background and Significance of the Research
1.2 Research Method and Idea
1.3 Innovation and limitation of the Research
1.3.1 Innovation of the Research
1.3.2 Limitation of the Research
2 Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
2.1 Definition, Classification and Role of Security Analysts
2.1.1 Definition of Security Analysts
2.1.2 Classification of Security Analysts
2.1.3 Role of Security Analysts
2.2 Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
2.2.1 Overseas Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
2.2.2 Domestic Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
3 Empirical Study of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias Pattern
3.1 Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypothesis
3.2 Research Design
3.2.1 Data Source and Sample Selection
3.2.2 Variable Selection and Model Building
3.3 Research Result
3.3.1 Descriptive Statistics
3.3.2 T-test results
3.3.3 Multiple Regression Result and Analysis
3.3.4 The Bias Pattern of Long Forecast Horizon and Short Forecast Horizon
4 Empirical Study of the Difference between Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Earnings Forecast Behavior
4.1 Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypothesis
4.2 Research Design
4.2.1 Data Source and Sample Selection
4.2.2 Variable Selection
4.3 Research Result
4.3.1 Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Preference for Covered Firms
4.3.2 Difference between Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Forecast Bias
5 Conclusions and Discussion
5.1 Research Conclusions
5.2 Discussion on this research
Bibliography
Acknowledgments
本文编号：3890798
【文章页数】：60 页
【学位级别】：硕士
【文章目录】：
Abstract
摘要
1 Introduction
1.1 Background and Significance of the Research
1.2 Research Method and Idea
1.3 Innovation and limitation of the Research
1.3.1 Innovation of the Research
1.3.2 Limitation of the Research
2 Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
2.1 Definition, Classification and Role of Security Analysts
2.1.1 Definition of Security Analysts
2.1.2 Classification of Security Analysts
2.1.3 Role of Security Analysts
2.2 Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
2.2.1 Overseas Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
2.2.2 Domestic Research Overview of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias
3 Empirical Study of Analysts’Earnings Forecast Bias Pattern
3.1 Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypothesis
3.2 Research Design
3.2.1 Data Source and Sample Selection
3.2.2 Variable Selection and Model Building
3.3 Research Result
3.3.1 Descriptive Statistics
3.3.2 T-test results
3.3.3 Multiple Regression Result and Analysis
3.3.4 The Bias Pattern of Long Forecast Horizon and Short Forecast Horizon
4 Empirical Study of the Difference between Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Earnings Forecast Behavior
4.1 Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypothesis
4.2 Research Design
4.2.1 Data Source and Sample Selection
4.2.2 Variable Selection
4.3 Research Result
4.3.1 Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Preference for Covered Firms
4.3.2 Difference between Star Analysts and Non-star Analysts’Forecast Bias
5 Conclusions and Discussion
5.1 Research Conclusions
5.2 Discussion on this research
Bibliography
Acknowledgments
本文编号：3890798
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