后危机时代国际热钱流入中国问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 08:18

本文选题：后危机时代 + 国际热钱　；参考：《东北师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着先进经济体和新兴经济体的经济情况逐渐向好，金融危机带来的恐慌在人民的心中慢慢散去，“后危机时代”这一名词越来越多地走入了我们的视野。为了应对这次波及全球的金融危机，各国政府均采取了积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策，来抑制金融危机的蔓延，刺激经济复苏。由于投资实体经济收益效果较慢，市场上大量的货币成为了热钱，而这些热钱势必会在新的世界经济环境下，在全球范围内寻求新的获利机会。在国内宏观形势较为乐观，国外先进经济体复苏乏力的情况下，国际热钱逐步显现出了加速流入中国的表象。本文就是以“后危机时代”为背景，结合国际热钱流入我国的实际情况，就后危机时代热钱流入中国这一问题进行了较为系统的探讨。本文从对后危机时代的界定入手，明确了后危机时代的起始时间，，并指出这一时代具有经济增长乏力且不均衡、主权债务危机显现以及货币流动性过剩，这三个重要特点。随后对国际热钱这一概念进行了较为系统的分析，进而指出了后危机时代同国际热钱流入我国之间的关系。本文接着分析了热钱流入的主体、动因、流入渠道、流入规模的估算方法以及流入领域。在动因分析时指出了热钱的流入是美国为了确保其世界经济霸主地位而发动的一场具有战略意义的“货币战争”，在对对热钱流入规模进行的估测上重新整理的相关公式。本文结合近年来我国经济运行的实际情况，就热钱流入给我国物价水平、资本市场以及汇率水平带来的影响进行了阐述。最后，在上述分析结果的基础上，提出了防治热钱的相关对策，提出加大对资本市场及货币市场的监管力度、统筹控制汇率和利率、强化外汇现钞管制、加强热钱流入渠道监管、构建相应的协调监管机制以及夺取主权信用评级话语权等建议。
[Abstract]:As the economic situation of advanced and emerging economies has gradually improved, the panic caused by the financial crisis has gradually dissipated in the minds of the people, and the term "post-crisis era" has increasingly come into our view. In response to the global financial crisis, governments have adopted active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies to curb the spread of the financial crisis and stimulate economic recovery. Due to the slow effect of the economic returns of the investment entities, a large number of currencies in the market have become hot money, which is bound to seek new profit opportunities in the new world economic environment. While the domestic macro situation is more optimistic and the recovery of advanced foreign economies is weak, international hot money gradually shows the appearance of accelerating the inflow into China. Based on the background of "post-crisis era" and the actual situation of international hot money flowing into China, this paper makes a systematic discussion on the problem of hot money flowing into China in post-crisis era. This paper begins with the definition of the post-crisis era, clarifies the starting time of the post-crisis era, and points out that this era has three important characteristics: weak and unbalanced economic growth, the emergence of sovereign debt crisis and the excess of monetary liquidity. Then the concept of international hot money is systematically analyzed and the relationship between the post-crisis era and the inflow of international hot money into China is pointed out. This paper then analyzes the main body of hot money inflow, the motivation, the inflow channel, the method of estimating the inflow scale and the inflow field. In this paper, the author points out that the inflow of hot money is a strategic "currency war" launched by the United States in order to ensure its dominant position in the world economy. Combined with the actual situation of China's economic operation in recent years, this paper expounds the influence of hot money inflow on China's price level, capital market and exchange rate level. Finally, on the basis of the above analysis results, the paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures to prevent and cure hot money, and proposes to strengthen the supervision of the capital market and the money market, to control the exchange rate and interest rate as a whole, and to strengthen the control of foreign exchange cash. Strengthening the supervision of hot money inflow channels, constructing the corresponding coordination supervision mechanism and seizing the voice of sovereign credit rating, etc.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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