农户灾害脆弱性评价—湄公河三角洲洪水区

发布时间：2023-06-10 11:39

　　对柬埔寨漫滩地区和越南湄公河三角洲地区家庭洪水脆弱性进行的评估,揭示了社区在应对周期性灾害的优劣势。该研究首先评估了可能受到洪水影响的因素。结果显示,受教育程度高的家庭、本地家庭及长期居住在研究区域的家庭可以减少受洪水影响的可能。同时,儿童似乎给其家庭带来了更大的压力,这也使得家庭更容易受到洪水影响。本研究是少数在灾害评估中采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型的研究之一,通过采用结构方程模型和反距离加权方法相结合的方法指出,无论从空间分布还是职业种类来看,柬埔寨漫滩地区的家庭比其在湄公河三角洲地区中的邻居更容易受到洪水的影响。在大多数情况下,居住在洞里萨湖中部的磅清扬市和北部的暹粒市的家庭,往往具有最高的洪水脆弱性指数。在湄公河三角洲地区,家庭洪水脆弱性大多保持在中等范围,这也表明该地区的灾情不如柬埔寨严重。人口统计学和社会资本对洪水暴露有直接影响。在本研究中发现,社会经济地位可以通过调节家庭应对风险能力来降低洪水影响的效应水平。此外,越南和柬埔寨家庭之间也存在异质性,由此突出了环境对理解社会脆弱性的影响。本文运用保护动机理论框架对防灾减洪行为进行了研究。结果表明,灾害评估、洪水经历和社会网络均...

【文章页数】：147 页

【学位级别】：博士

【文章目录】：
摘要
Abstract
Chapter1.Introduction
    1.1.Research background
        1.1.1.Problem statement
        1.1.2.Research questions
        1.1.3.Research objectives
    1.2.Literature review
        1.2.1.Previous studies on vulnerability assessment
        1.2.2.Previous studies on SEM in natural hazards assessment
    1.3.Study areas and data
        1.3.1.Overview of Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta
        1.3.2.Overview of the Cambodian Floodplain
        1.3.3.Data
Chapter2.Research concepts and theoretical framework
    2.1.Research concepts
        2.1.1.Vulnerability
        2.1.2.Types of flooding
        2.1.3.Household
        2.1.4.Production activities in the study area
        2.1.5.Flood mitigation and adaptation strategies
    2.2.Flood vulnerability assessment framework
        2.2.1.The proposed structure of flood vulnerability
        2.2.2.Proposed hypotheses on the interrelationship of vulnerability determinants
        2.2.3.Partial least squares structural equation modeling(PLS-SEM)
Chapter3.Flood vulnerability assessment
    3.1.Extreme floods in the Cambodian floodplain and the MRD
    3.2.Overview of demographics and socioeconomic status
    3.3.Flood vulnerability assessment
        3.3.1.Estimation result
        3.3.2.Statistical analysis of flood vulnerability index
        3.3.3.Regional analysis of flood vulnerability
    3.4.Interaction among flood vulnerability determinants
        3.4.1.Demographic factors have significant influences on flood exposure
        3.4.2.Social capital assists in reducing flood exposure
        3.4.3.Cross-national differences and the indirect effects of socioeconomic status,coping capacity,and exposure
        3.4.4.Summary
Chapter4.Factors affecting farmers’disaster vulnerability
    4.1.Factors affecting the probabilities of being affected by floods
        4.1.1.Method
        4.1.2.Results
        4.1.3.Discussion
    4.2.The influence of gender in vulnerability assessment
        4.2.1.Results
        4.2.2.Discussion
    4.3.Factors that influence flood damage mitigation behavior
        4.3.1.Method
        4.3.2.Results
        4.3.3.Discussion
        4.3.4.Conclusion
    4.4.Social capital,livelihood diversification,and physical flood damages
        4.4.1.Introduction
        4.4.2.Method
        4.4.3.Results and discussion
        4.4.4.Conclusion
Chapter5.Policy recommendations for flood mitigation and adaptation
    5.1.Analyzing flood management frameworks
        5.1.1.Cambodia
        5.1.2.Vietnam
        5.1.3.Summary
    5.2.Recommendations to improve flood mitigation and adaptation
        5.2.1.Providing social protection through structural measures
        5.2.2.Institutional revamping
        5.2.3.Preventing risk redistribution on marginal groups
        5.2.4.Improvement of warning systems and management capability
        5.2.5.Increasing farmers’coping capacity
        5.2.6.International cooperation
    5.3.Challenges of flood management in the new contexts
        5.3.1.Challenges by anthropogenic factors
        5.3.2.Challenges from climate change
        5.3.3.Implications for the new context
Chapter6.Conclusion
    6.1.Achievements
    6.2.Limitations and challenges
    6.3.Final words
References
Acknowledgement
Biographical Sketch



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