跨流域调水对区域生态经济影响综合评价研究

发布时间：2018-09-09 18:54

【摘要】： 跨流域调水工程是人类为了改善自己的生存环境，发展经济而实施的一项大规模的人工工程。它使水资源在一定程度上按照人类的意志在时间和空间上重新分配，从而促进人类的生存和发展，使人们获得巨大的社会、经济和生态环境效益。但是跨流域调水人为地改变了地区水情，势必会改变原来的生态环境，打破原有的生态平衡，如果规划决策不当，将造成严重的、不可逆转的生态环境破坏，进而威胁人类的生存和发展。因此，在规划设计跨流域调水工程时应当全面考虑工程将对社会、经济和生态环境等各方面的影响，统筹规划，使工程的综合效益最大化。本项研究在系统科学和生态经济理论的指导下，，运用系统综合评价的方法，研究了跨流域调水对区域生态经济的影响评价问题。具体研究内容包括以下三个部分：首先是理论研究部分。理论研究又分为系统分析和评价基础两个方面：系统分析部分首先是对跨流域调水系统与区域生态经济系统分别进行了系统分析，认为跨流域调水与区域生态经济耦合的过程中产生了跨流域调水对区域生态经济影响；评价基础中，首先对本文的研究进行了空间和时间上界定，然后分别分析了跨流域调水建设期和运营期两个阶段的影响因素及特点，在此基础上选择了两个阶段的评价方法。其次是方法研究部分。方法研究又分为建设期的指标评价方法和运营期的系统动力学方法：建设期影响的指标方法中，建立了基于压力-状态-响应的跨流域调水对区域生态经济影响的总体框架，通过计算可以得出压力、状态及响应各系统的评价结果；运营期影响的SD方法中，建立了SD方法用于跨流域调水运营期对区域生态经济影响评价的模型框架，开发了SD方法评价的一套完整的建模方法与具体步骤。最后是实证研究部分。以目前正在实施的南水北调东线作为实例，就其对苏北地区生态经济影响评价进行实证研究，以检验所研究评价理论与方法的合理性及有效性。
[Abstract]:Interbasin water transfer project is a large-scale artificial project implemented by human beings in order to improve their living environment and develop economy. To a certain extent, water resources are redistributed in time and space according to the will of human beings, thus promoting the survival and development of human beings and making people obtain enormous social, economic and ecological environmental benefits. However, by artificially changing the regional water situation by transferring water across the river basin, it is bound to change the original ecological environment and break the original ecological balance. If the planning decision is not appropriate, it will cause serious and irreversible damage to the ecological environment. And then threaten the survival and development of mankind. Therefore, when planning and designing cross-basin water diversion projects, we should take into account the impact of the project on social, economic and ecological environment, and make the overall planning to maximize the comprehensive benefits of the project. Under the guidance of system science and ecological economy theory, this paper studies the impact of water transfer on regional ecological economy by the method of systematic comprehensive evaluation. The specific research content includes the following three parts: the first part is the theoretical research part. The theoretical research is divided into two aspects: the first part is the systematic analysis of the water transfer system and the regional eco-economic system, which are divided into two parts: one is the system analysis, the other is the regional eco-economic system. It is considered that the cross-basin water transfer and the regional eco-economic coupling process produce the impact of cross-basin water transfer on the regional eco-economy. In the evaluation foundation, the research of this paper is defined in space and time. Then, the influencing factors and characteristics of the two stages of water transfer construction and operation are analyzed, and the evaluation methods of the two stages are selected. The second part is the method research part. Methods the index evaluation method of construction period and the system dynamics method of operation period were studied. In the index method of influence in construction period, the overall framework of the impact of cross-basin water transfer on regional ecological economy was established based on pressure-state-response. The evaluation results of pressure, state and response system can be obtained by calculation. In the SD method of operation period influence, the model framework of SD method is established for regional eco-economic impact assessment in the period of cross-basin water transfer operation. A complete set of modeling methods and concrete steps for evaluation of SD method are developed. The last part is empirical research. Taking the East Route of South-to-North Water transfer as an example, this paper makes an empirical study on the Eco-economic impact Assessment of Northern Jiangsu Province, in order to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the evaluation theory and method studied by the Institute.
【学位授予单位】：河海大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：X826.03

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