经济政策和全球环境

发布时间：2016-03-15 17:43

WASHINGTON-United States consumer confidence fell more than expected in December fell more than expected in December, hitting a four-month low as a looming fiscal crisis sapped what had been a growing sense of optimism about the economy.华盛顿美国消费者信心下降超过预期十二月下跌超过预期在十二月，触及一四个月低点作为一个迫在眉睫的财政危机削弱了越来越强烈的对经济的乐观情绪。
该报告使人们担心失败的华盛顿避免计划增税和削减开支可能导致家庭关闭他们的钱包，威胁经济复苏已稳定虽然乏善可陈。
昨日公布的其他数据显示，美国经济正势头良好，随着美国人数量的增长，，近四年半的低水平新房销售达到了四月以来的最高水平。
消费者也担心，表示担心所谓的“财政悬崖”可以咬到家庭支出。一个产业集团的会议委员会表示，其消费态度指数从上月的71.5下降到65.1。
一个消费者对他们目前状况的评价指数上升到了四多年来的最高水平，但对未来的一个衡量标准，在一年多以来的最低点。
美国劳工部表示，失业救济金的初始状态下降12000上周经季节性调整的350000，“消费者越来越关注的潜在损害财政悬崖导致经济和他们的钱包，如果交易是不是快到了，”RBS在康涅狄格州斯坦福德，经济学家在研究报告中写道。

The report heightened concerns that a failure by Washington to avert planned tax hikes and spending cuts could lead households to close their wallets, threatening an economic recovery that has been steady albeit lackluster.

Other data yesterday highlighted the positive momentum building in the economy, with the number of Americans filling to a nearly four-and-half year low new home sales hitting their highest level since April 2010.
Consumers also appear apprehensive, a sign worries about the so-called “fiscal cliff” could bite into household spending. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 65.1 from 71.5 last month.
A sub-index measuring how consumers feel about their present situation rose to its highest level in more than four years, but a gauge of sentiment about the future plunged to its lowest point in more than a year.
THE US Labour Department said initial for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 350,000,“Consumers are increasingly preoccupied with the potential damage the fiscal cliff with cause to the economy and to their wallets if a deal is not reached soon,” economists at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research note.

1.0 Introduction介绍

Since 2008, the international financial crisis, the world economy is entered the volatile and full of suspense new stage, has also not peace. 2012 is the debt crisis repeated fermentation, spreads so as to influence the world economic recovery a years. In 2013, the world economy is still not peace, there are many uncertain factors, will in many difficulties to slow recovery. Recently, I saw a report, the United States consumer confidence abate cause financial crisis. I think this is one of the uncertain factors, and the world economic recovery, need to face these problems. Of course I think consumer confidence abate is not only the United States.

2.0 Consumer confidence消费者信心

Consumer confidence, also some people called the consumer mood, it is to point to consumer according to the national or regional economic development situation, to employment, income, price, interest rate the problems such as synthetic judgment from a point and expected. In many countries, consumer confidence measure is considered to be the necessary supplement consumption.

We can see from the report, consumer confidence fell to 65.1 from 71.5 last month low nearly 6 point, it is enough to make many economists flabbergasted things.
Consumer confidence is mainly to understand consumer confidence in the economic environment of strength, reflecting the consumer to economic attitudes and buying intention. The data including both consumers to economic situation and job market evaluation, but also for future economic and employment market expectations, as well as the relevant family income and whether he plans to buy a house, cars, etc. The problem of consumer goods. Through sampling survey, the response to the current and future consumer six months of economic boom, the employment situation and personal financial situation feelings and views. In the United States, the economic counselor will consumer research center, the national family view by the company to the United States a month about 5000 families after investigation, it is concluded that the statistical data. The survey from the beginning of 1969. Respondents mainly will be asked to "the present economic boom condition", "the present employment situation" feeling, make "good", "ordinary" or "bad" view, at the same time for "six months after economic boom condition", "six months after the employment situation", and "after six months income" and so on, and show that "will be better", "and now the same" or "worse" view. For each question different views proportional increase or decrease the trend of key is to observe.

2.1 Influence
In the economic cycle, consumer confidence is considered as the economic strength and indicators, and the current business conditions have a high correlation. Analysis shows that the index and consumer spending weak correlation, and the state of the economy and unemployment have strong lag indicators of negative correlation. From the reports we learned that consumer confidence drops, it represents a willingness to spend is not strong, the possibility of improving economy slows.
Consumer confidence drops, what is the reason? We can see from this report a word: financial cliff. I think this is an important consumer confidence down one of the reasons.

3.0 Financial cliff金融悬崖

Financial cliff, in order to raise taxes and the two policy stack together, make the government finances collapsing, and the United States financial deficit is closely tied to the debt problems. President barrack Obama is re-elected in success, to be faced with a difficult problem is America's fiscal cliff. The power will reach the scale of 800 billion dollars; the emergence of financial cliff will inevitably lead to the American economic activities into extreme atrophy.

3.1 Economic situation
The so-called "fiscal cliff", by the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke in on February 7, 2012, in the congressional hearing this paper proposes for the first time, it is to point to the United States in January 1, 2013 at the same time appear tax increases and spending reduce situation. If both parties in congress in 2012 can't reach an agreement to avoid this situation, in order to increase tax measures will be effective, in 2013 the United States will increase revenue of $532 billion, and at the same time reduce the $136 billion government spending.
The congressional budget office in November of 2012 8 said in a report, if congress can't stop "fiscal cliff" appeared, in 2013 the United States real GDP will decline 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2013, and the unemployment rate will rise to 9.1%.
The report said the analysis; the abolition of automatic minus red mechanism will make the U.S. economy in 2013 about 0.8%, and improve delay the bush administration's tax cuts will make economic growth around 1.4%. Both at the same time will improve GDP2.2 %, but at the same time lead to increase fiscal deficit of $395 billion.
The report also pointed out that, even completely eliminate the "fiscal cliff" threat, a period of economic growth in the United States will still be less than its potential growth rate, and the unemployment rate will be higher than normal. The next decade the federal government debt will continue to expand; this will increase the financial risk.
Congressional budget office had earlier report said; "fiscal cliff" will lead to the U.S. economy in the first half of 2013 slump recession.

3.2 Influence the world economy
The world is now the focus U.S. Treasury cliff, I think it is not only the United States, if the United States is unable to take corresponding measures and policies; this not only affects the consumer confidence so simple, and at the same time will affect the entire American economy, and even the world economy. Because of this the countries all over the world will pay close attention to and report, the latest situation of the fiscal cliff.
Economists warned, if could not cross the word cliff, the United States and the global economy could be dragged into "secondary recession abyss. The budget office expected, once "drop cliff", congress budget cuts and increased taxation policy will be in January 2013 to be automatic to take effect, in the first half of 2013 the economy will fall into recession, the economic growth by 0.5%, and the unemployment rate up to 9%. Of homes in this tax will increase.
In China, for example, the United States financial cliff will give China's economy brought the influence. China's economy is expected to slow over the main reason is export lack of power. If the financial cliff on the U.S. economy has causeda serious drag, will influence the demand for goods made in China, so as to give China's export add shadow. Financial cliff against the United States economic recovery, the federal reserve QE3 or will be continuously, which injected large us dollar liquidity will not only stay in the United States, will also promote international gold, crude oil, food and commodity prices rise, a new turn against China will keep the price level in the low post. This would also to a certain extent, stimulate the hot money inflows. At present, China has the federal government bonds of about 1.1 trillion us dollars, accounting for the federal government debt, which accounts for 7.6% of the total amount of China's foreign currency reserves 35.1% of the total. Financial cliff increased China's foreign currency reserves the difficulty of the value of its assets, but also to reserve assets, bring more depreciation risk. I want to similar to this problem, in the United States financial cliff background, not only to the Chinese economy influenced.

4.0Solution解决方案

And how to find the minimum consumer confidence and how to reduce the effects of fiscal cliff, is now our most needed to face problems.
According to the media reported that in the New Year in 2013, shortly after the United States senate vote overwhelmingly by avoiding "fiscal cliff" solutions. The plan will then vote by the House of Representatives. It is reported, such as also won the house through the, this scheme will by President Obama sign, can become effective.
According to the report, the senate members to a 89-9 votes through the plan, then, to see whether its in the house of representatives to pass through. Although earlier ayman al-zawahiri mocks the federal house speaker borna has promised that he would put on the table as soon as possible solutions, but analysis says, this scheme in the house fate is suspended and pending.
Also have pointed out that most Americans not to congress as a revolt, and the House of Representatives are under pressure will vote in recently will bill.
This year after the elections, "fiscal cliff" will become the biggest problem. The republican and Democratic Party dispute two biggest focuses is rich with tax and how to reduce spending. Republicans hope through spending cuts in the future ten years increase revenues of $800 billion, while Obama insisted on improve the rich class rate way to increase your income.
From the end of November to 12 month, proposal on both sides and consulted many times, but due to the serious differences, until December 31 of the final countdown for several hours, the White House and the senate republicans to achieve delay "fiscal cliff" solutions.
According to this scheme agreement, the United States will in 2013 annual income of more than us $450000 to a wealthy family, tax increases, and will be in early 2013 start about $110 billion government spending cuts to postpone two months to implement.

5.0  Conclusion 总结

The above is the United States itself, in the face of financial cliff efforts and measures. And the world countries facing the U.S. financial cliff will more or less by the economic effects. And we should make adjustment and how to ensure long-term economic sustainable development? I think the United States to deal with the financial cliff should from three aspects, on the one hand, adhere to our own country original strategic target, to speed up the pace of international currency; On the other hand, as far as possible control domestic debt risk; The third aspect, adjust domestic demand structure and industrial structure, the transformation of the mode of economic development, to avoid excessive domestic economy by the influence of the international economy, in order to ensure our national economic long-term sustainable development.

Reference文献

Financial cliff is to destroy the United States consumer confidence. Wall Street column. 
De, Y. Beauty the senate vote overwhelmingly by avoiding "fiscal cliff" scheme. China news network. 
Wu, C. The United States financial cliff is imminent. PRC - People's Daily.
Mei, C. The United States financial cliff has heavy defeat consumer confidence prospects.
Financial cliff dark increase consumer confidence. 

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