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基于Logistic回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析

发布时间:2016-12-17 15:27

  本文关键词:基于Logistic回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析,由笔耕文化传播整理发布。


2009年11月

刘瑞等:基于Logistic回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析

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资源科学

第31卷第11期

AnalysisoftheDrivingForcesofUrbanSprawlinDezhouCity

BasedonaLogisticRegressionModel

LIURui1,ZHUDaolin1,ZHUZhanqiang2,YANGWenzhi3

(1.DepartmentofLandResourcesManagement,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Beijing100193,China;

3.BureauofLandResourceManagementofDezhouCity,Dezhou253073,China)

2.SchoolofArchitecture,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084,China;

Abstract:Sprawlingurbandevelopmentisamajordrivingforceforlandscapefragmentationand

thelossofagriculturalland.Soitisveryusefulandmeaningfultoanalyzetheprocessesandcharacteristicsofurbansprawltofindoutthedrivingforcesoftheexpansion.Thismayprovideuswithascientificbasistorationallyutilizelandresources,efficientlycontroltheamountoflandforconstruction,andtoeffectivelyprotectoureco-environment.ThispaperthusaimedatdevelopinganapproachtofindingoutthedrivingforcesofurbansprawlinDezhouCitylocatedinShandongProvince,China.Theauthorsanalyzedtheprocessesandcharacteristicsofurbansprawlinperiodof1996to2005withageographicinformationsystem(GIS),andthenquantifiedtherelationshipbetweenurbansprawlandinternalandexternalfactorsusingaLogisticregressionmodelfromaperspectiveofthespatialcorrelation.Inthispaper,14internalandexternaldrivingfactorswereselected.Theinternaldrivingforcesinclude5factorsregardingnaturalenvironmentalconditionsandlocations;theexternaldrivingforcesinclude9factorsrelativetodemographicchanges,economicdevelopmentandpublicpoliciesmadebythegovernment.ResultsindicatedthattheurbanareaofDezhouCityhasexpandedapproximately1.5timesforthepastnineyears,showingthatthelandexpansionintensityindexandtheaverageannualexpansionintensityindexwere10.07%and1.12%,respectively.Fromaspatialpointofview,theexpansionwasgenerallybasedontheoriginaldistributionoftheurbanarea,withshowingthattheeastwasaprimarydirectionoftheexpansion.TheLogisticregressionmodelshowedthattherelativeoperatingcharacteristics(ROC)testvaluewasaround0.937,meaningthatthemodelhadarelativelystrongabilitytodetectmainexplanatorydriversforurbansprawlinDezhouCity.ItwasfoundthattheurbansprawlinDezhouCitywascloselyrelatedtoexternalfactorslikeeconomicdevelopment,socialprogress,andpoliciesofthegovernment.Inaddition,itwasalsoinfluencedbysomeinternalfactorssuchasthenaturalconditionandgeographylocation.Amongtheexternalfactors,theurbanplanning,whichrepresentsthegovernmentpolicy,isthemostimportantdrivingforce,thesecondoneistheeconomicdevelopmentandgeographylocation,andthethirdoneisthechangeofpopulation.Althoughthismodelhasabetterabilitytointerpreturbansprawliftheexpansionareashavegreatdifferences,ithasfeweropportunitiestoexplaintheseexpansionsundertheconditionsofsmalldifferencesindifferentexpansionareas.

Keywords:Urbansprawl;Drivingforces;Logisticregressionmodel;Dezhoucity

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  本文关键词:基于Logistic回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析,由笔耕文化传播整理发布。



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