基于多干旱指数与多水文模型的区域水文及干旱特征研究

发布时间：2021-04-13 12:37

　　在中国黑龙江的经济发展中,松花江因其独特的资源和自然条件而发挥着重要作用。松花江流域位于中国东北地区,是中国主要的商品粮基地之一。近几十年来松花江流量大幅度下降,对全球变暖背景下的可持续发展和水资源管理构成严重威胁。因此,极端降水的可靠性对于评估自然灾害（即洪水和干旱）非常重要。干旱会对生态系统产生长期影响,从而产生自然系统的压力、经济损失和人道主义灾难。因此,通过研究历史和未来水文气象行为的变化,来制定流域水资源综合规划是必要的。本研究利用多点水文模型进行,这些模型是通过点数据和一般循环模型（GCMs）集合的偏差来校正降水,从而评估SRB的水文和气象行为。此外,还利用多个干旱指数来分析SRB的历史和未来干旱行为。本研究采用的数据有积雪覆盖数据、径流量和气象资料（降水量和地表温度）,其中积雪覆盖数据来自于中分辨率成像光谱仪。此外,利用包含不同总循环模式的耦合模式比较计划5评价了松花江流域1961-2005年间的径流和气候变化趋势;利用包含3个RCP（8.5,4.5 and 2.6）的耦合模式比较计划5评价了两种情境（A2,A1B）下,2006-2099年间松花江流域的径流和气候变化趋势... 

【文章来源】：东北农业大学黑龙江省 211工程院校

【文章页数】：157 页

【学位级别】：博士

【文章目录】：
Abstract in Chinese
Abstract in English
1 Introduction
    1.1 Basis for setting subject
    1.2 Purpose and significance of research
    1.3 Summary of local and international research
        1.3.1 Study on climatic variables and hydrological characteristics
        1.3.2 Study on projection of climate variables
        1.3.3 Study on application and reliability of general circulation models
        1.3.4 Study on drought behavior
        1.3.5 Study on application of drought indexes for projection of dry periods
    1.4 The main study content and technology route
        1.4.1 The main study content
        1.4.2 The technology route
2 Assessment the impact of snow cover and climatic variables on river stream flow in theSonghua River Basin
    2.1 Research area and data sets
        2.1.1 Research area
        2.1.2 Data sets
    2.2 Methods
        2.2.1 Mann-Kendall' s trend test
        2.2.2 Sen's Slope estimator
    2.3 Results and discussion
        2.3.1 Snow cover trend in the Songhua River Basin
        2.3.2 Stream flow trend analysis
        2.3.3 Correlation between climate variables, stream flow and snow cover
    2.4 Brief summary of this chapter
3 Trends assessemnt of climate variables for the 21st century over the Songhua RiverBasin
    3.1 Data sets
    3.2 Methods
        3.2.1 Downscaling techniques
        3.2.2 Statistical indicators
    3.3 Results and analysis
        3.3.1 Comparison of simulated model values with observed data
        3.3.2 Projection of precipitation and surface area temperature
    3.4 Discussion
    3.5 Brief summary of this chapter
4 Assesment of stream flow variations and drought in the Songhua River Basin
    4.1 Data sets
    4.2 Methods
        4.2.1 Water Evaluation and Planning （WEAP） Tool
        4.2.2 Statistical analysis
        4.2.3 Climate change scenarios
        4.2.4 Drought indexes
        4.2.5 Theory of Run
    4.3 Results and discussion
        4.3.1 Evaluation of SRES-A1B and SRES-A2
        4.3.2 WEAP performance evaluation based on APHRODITE and observed precipitationdata
        4.3.3 Historical trend and impact of climate change on stream flow
        4.3.4 Historical drought behavior of stream flow
        4.3.5 Stream flow drought conditions in 21st century
        4.3.6 Risk assessment of drought events
    4.4 Brief summary for this chapter
5 Evaluation of hydrological models using ensembles of GCMs in the Songhua RiverBasin
    5.1 Data sets
    5.2 Methods
        5.2.1 Linear scaling method
        5.2.2 Hydrological models
    5.3 Results and discussions
        5.3.1 Performance evaluation of raw general circulation models （GCMs）
        5.3.2 Performance evaluation of GCMs by reformulated linear scaling method
        5.3.3 Calibration and validation of hydrological models using observational data
        5.3.4 Comparison between hydrological models （GR4J, WEAP, and NAM）
    5.4 Brief summary of this chapter
6 Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring using GCMs and pan evaporation-based drought indexes in the Songhua River Basin
    6.1 Methods
        6.1.1 Selection of indexes
        6.1.2 Downscaling method
    6.2 Results and analysis
        6.2.1 Performance evaluation of GCM-based regional calculated precipitation indexesand average trends analysis on annual scales
        6.2.2 Station based trends analysis in extreme precipitation indexes on annual scales
        6.2.3 Comparison among drought Indexes
    6.3 Discussion
    6.4 Brief summary of this chapter
7 Drought characteristics analysis using multi-indexes and ensembles of GeneralCirculation Models in the Songhua River Basin
    7.1 Methods
        7.1.1 Statistical downscaling by Generator for Point Climate Change （GPCC）
        7.1.2 Drought indexes
        7.1.3 Reference evapotranspiration （ET0）
        7.1.4 Drought determining criterion
        7.1.5 Potential contributors
    7.2 Results and discussions
        7.2.1 Historical drought behaviour analysis
        7.2.2 Evaluation of general circulation models （GCMs）
        7.2.3 Future drought episodes identification under Representative ConcentrationPathways （RCPs） scenario
        7.2.4 Duration identification of future drought episodes under RepresentativeConcentration Pathways （RCPs） scenario
        7.2.5 Impact assessment of of potential contributor on drought behaviour
        7.2.6 Multi-indexes performance assessment
    7.3 Brief summary of this chapter
8 Performance evaluation of gridded precipitation data products over Heilongjiang Province in China
    8.1 Research area and data sets
        8.1.1 Research area
        8.1.2 Data sets
    8.2 Methods
        8.2.1 Precipitation Concentration Index （PCI）
        8.2.2 Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI）
    8.3 Results and discussions
        8.3.1 Comparison of gridded data products with observed data
        8.3.2 Performance evaluation of precipitation data products based on precipitationconcentration index analysis
        8.3.3 Performance evaluation of precipitation data products based on drought frequencyanalysis
    8.4 Brief summary for this chapter
9 Conclusions and prospects
    9.1 Conclusions
    9.2 Novelty points
    9.3 Prospects
Acknowledgement
References
Papers published in the periods of Ph D education


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